AI to Surpass Human Intelligence by Next Year, Predicts Elon Musk

  Midjourney

Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur behind Tesla, X, and SpaceX, predicts that artificial intelligence (AI) models could outstrip human intelligence by the end of 2025. This projection, however, hinges on whether there is a sufficient supply of electricity and hardware to support these increasingly powerful technologies.

Musk’s Bold Predictions

In a recent interview with Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Musk suggested that the capabilities of AI could exceed those of all humans within the next five years. He has often championed the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI), AI tools so powerful they can outperform individuals in any domain.

Although Musk has previously projected that “full” AGI would be accomplished by 2029, current predictions are more ambitious. Despite not all of Musk’s predictions, such as launching self-driving Teslas and landing a rocket on Mars, coming to fruition, the rapid advancement of AI is undeniable.

AI Advancements Outpace Expectations

The AI landscape has witnessed several breakthroughs over the past 18 months, including the introduction of video generation tools and more capable chatbots. These innovations have propelled AI development faster than anticipated. Google’s DeepMind co-founder, Demis Hassabis, also predicted earlier this year that AGI could be realized by 2030.

However, the pace of AI progression has been impeded by a shortage of microchips, especially those manufactured by Nvidia, which are crucial for training and implementing AI models. Musk noted that while these constraints are lessening, new models are now challenging other data center equipment and the electricity grid.

Musk’s AI Ventures

Despite his calls last year for a halt in advanced AI development due to potential risks to society and humanity, Musk remains eager to participate in the AI race. His AI start-up, xAI, is developing a second version of its model, Grok, which is expected to outperform the market-leading model, GPT-4.

In the past year, Musk has dedicated more time and resources to xAI and is currently seeking billions of dollars in investment to compete with OpenAI. This funding round could value the company at $18bn.

Despite some controversy during his involvement in the development of new AI tools, Musk continues to play a central role in the field. He was a co-founder of OpenAI in 2015 but left the company in 2018 due to disagreements over research direction. Recently, Musk has taken legal action against OpenAI and its co-founder Sam Altman, alleging a breach of contract, a claim that OpenAI has fervently denied.